GSMA Warns Spectrum Shortages Could Cost 6G $520 Billion by 2040

6G could add $1.24 trillion to the global economy in 2040, but the GSMA warns that $520 billion of that value — 42% — will evaporate unless governments release enough spectrum in time. The figure comes from Vision 2040: The Economic Benefits of 6G, a report published by the industry body that represents mobile operators worldwide.

The analysis measures the economic value 6G would generate beyond what networks would deliver if 5G remained the most advanced technology. Advances in artificial intelligence, integrated sensing, industrial automation, immersive digital services and ubiquitous connectivity drive the projected gains.

"6G represents a $1.24 trillion opportunity for the global economy," said John Giusti, Chief Regulatory Officer at the GSMA. "The next generation of mobile technology will help power AI, transform industries and unlock new levels of productivity across the economy. But these benefits are not guaranteed."

Giusti added that more than $500 billion of the economic value "will depend on the spectrum decisions governments make today."

Where will the money come from?

Manufacturing and financial services stand to gain the most. The report assigns 20% of 6G's additional economic contribution in 2040 to manufacturing and 19% to financial services. Construction follows at 13%, with information and communications technology at 12%.

Unlike earlier generations, 6G is expected to be AI-native. Networks would not only carry data but also sense their environment, support intelligent decision-making and combine terrestrial with satellite connectivity.

The GSMA identifies five areas where 6G creates additional value:

• connectivity for future AI systems;
• industrial automation and robotics;
• enhanced mobile broadband and fixed wireless access;
• integrated sensing and communication;
• non-terrestrial networks extending coverage to underserved areas.

Which regions gain the most?

Greater China leads the regional forecast with $390 billion of additional economic value by 2040. North America follows at $290 billion, then Europe at $225 billion. The report cautions that actual gains will depend on the pace of 6G adoption, national infrastructure and how readily businesses integrate the new technology.

Why does spectrum decide the outcome?

Mid-band spectrum will carry 70% of 6G's economic contribution in 2040, according to the report, because it delivers the capacity and performance advanced digital services require. Low-band spectrum contributes roughly 25%, covering rural areas, building interiors and locations higher frequencies cannot reach.

Restricted access to these ranges could cut 6G's contribution by up to $520 billion in 2040. The GSMA notes these losses would come on top of any wider economic damage to existing mobile networks, which share the same spectrum resources.

The report sets out three actions for governments and regulators:

• Make at least 2 GHz of mid-band spectrum available by around 2030, releasing further capacity as 6G demand grows. This should include the upper 6 GHz band, plus additional capacity in the upper 3.5 GHz, 4.5 GHz and 7 GHz ranges.
• Make the 600 MHz band available for 6G to strengthen rural and indoor coverage, with 500 MHz considered where appropriate.
• Publish clear, timely national spectrum roadmaps so operators can plan investment and deploy networks ahead of demand.

"Spectrum is not simply a technical requirement for mobile networks; it is a foundation for future economic growth," Giusti said. "Getting spectrum policy right now will be essential to making that happen."

The stakes sharpen as the World Radiocommunication Conference in 2027 approaches. The GSMA stresses that internationally coordinated spectrum planning at WRC-27 will determine whether the next generation of mobile connectivity reaches its full economic potential.