GSMA Warns Spectrum Shortage Puts $520 Billion of 6G Gains at Risk

Spectrum shortages could wipe out $520 billion of the $1.24 trillion that 6G is projected to add to the global economy by 2040, the GSMA has warned.

The industry association's Vision 2040: The Economic Benefits of 6G report estimates next-generation mobile networks could contribute an additional 0.7% to total global GDP by the end of the next decade. Limited spectrum availability, however, could erase 42% of that opportunity — the $520 billion figure at the centre of the warning.

The numbers are projections, not measured results. They rest on the GSMA's assumptions about adoption rates, national infrastructure and business readiness, all of which the report itself flags as variables that will determine the scale of eventual gains.

Where the money is forecast to come from

Manufacturing and financial services take the largest sector shares of 6G's additional economic contribution in 2040, at 20% and 19% respectively. Construction follows at 13%, with information and communications technology representing 12%.

The regional split is equally concrete. Greater China is forecast to gain $390 billion by 2039's end, followed by North America with $290 billion and Europe with $225 billion.

"Unlike previous generations of mobile technology, 6G is expected to be AI-native," the GSMA stated. The association attributes the projected gains to five areas:

• Connectivity for future AI systems
• Industrial automation and robotics
• Enhanced mobile broadband and fixed wireless access (FWA)
• Integrated sensing and communications (ISAC)
• Non-terrestrial networks (NTN)

The AI-native framing matters for the spectrum argument. Machine communication and sensing workloads are capacity-hungry, and the GSMA's case for new assignments flows directly from that demand profile.

What does this change for governments and operators?

The report's policy demand is specific. The GSMA called for at least 2GHz of mid-band spectrum to be made available by around 2030, including capacity in the upper 6GHz range as well as access to the 600MHz band. It also urged governments to establish clear national spectrum roadmaps to give operators greater investment certainty.

The stakes are high because mid-band carries most of the value. Mid-band spectrum is expected to underpin around 70% of 6G's economic contribution, while low-band frequencies will account for approximately 25%, supporting indoor and rural coverage.

"More than $500 billion of the economic value will depend on the spectrum decisions governments make today," said John Giusti, chief regulatory officer at the GSMA. "Spectrum is not simply a technical requirement for mobile networks; it is a foundation for future economic growth," he added.

The clock is the real message

The upper 6GHz band is the contested ground. Regulators in several markets face competing claims from mobile operators and unlicensed Wi-Fi interests, and the GSMA is pressing the mobile case ahead of standardisation work on 6G, which is expected to mature toward the end of this decade.

The report's core warning is about timing rather than technology. Decisions made now on spectrum assignments will influence the capacity and performance of future 6G networks, the association argued, urging governments to accelerate spectrum planning rather than wait for the standard to be finalised.

With 6G connections tipped to reach 2.4 billion by 2035 and the GSMA's 2030 deadline for 2GHz of mid-band now fewer than six years away, regulators can expect the industry's lobbying to intensify through the next World Radiocommunication Conference cycle.