GSMA Puts 6G Value at $1.24 Trillion by 2040, Warns of $520 Billion Spectrum Gap

6G could add $1.24 trillion to the global economy in 2040, but insufficient spectrum allocation could cut that figure by $520 billion, GSMA Intelligence said in its report Vision 2040: The Economic Benefits of 6G, published in November 2026.

The full contribution would equal 0.7 percent of global GDP. It represents additional economic activity beyond what existing mobile technologies, including 5G, would deliver without 6G. Benefits are expected to build progressively between 2030 and 2040 as operators deploy commercial networks, enterprises adopt new applications and consumers upgrade to compatible devices.

What happens if spectrum falls short?

Under a constrained scenario, operators receive only 72 percent of required low-band spectrum and 50 percent of necessary mid-band spectrum. The 6G contribution then drops to approximately $720 billion in 2040, a $520 billion reduction equal to 42 percent of potential benefits.

Shortages would restrict network capacity, coverage, reliability and the commercial deployment of advanced AI applications. The report names the World Radiocommunication Conference 2027 (WRC-27) as the decisive milestone for harmonised 6G spectrum decisions.

Which bands carry the value?

Mid-band spectrum accounts for approximately $880 billion, or 70 percent, of the projected 6G contribution in 2040.

• Mid-band: $880 billion (70 percent), suited to dense cities, industrial facilities and enterprise applications
• Low-band: $300 billion (25 percent), essential for rural coverage, indoor connectivity and massive IoT
• Millimetre-wave: $70 billion (5 percent), for high-capacity sensing and dense-environment connectivity

GSMA recommends making at least 2 GHz of mid-band spectrum available by around 2030. Requirements rise to 2–2.5 GHz globally by 2035–2040, and to between 2.4 GHz and 3.3 GHz in countries with particularly high mobile data demand.

Candidate bands include the upper 3.5 GHz range, encompassing 3.8–4.2 GHz, the 4.5 GHz band and frequencies within 6–8 GHz. For coverage, GSMA recommends the 600 MHz band, with 500 MHz considered where additional low-band capacity is needed.

Which sectors gain most?

Manufacturing leads with approximately $250 billion in additional value in 2040, 20 percent of the total. Industrial automation, connected machinery, robotics and reliable low-latency communications drive that figure.

• Manufacturing: $250 billion
• Finance: $240 billion
• Wholesale and retail: $160 billion
• Construction: $160 billion
• ICT: $150 billion
• Services: $130 billion
• Public administration: $120 billion
• Agriculture: $40 billion

Manufacturing and finance together account for almost 40 percent of total benefits. In relative terms, the ranking reverses. Finance could see sector GDP rise 1.9 percent and ICT 1.8 percent, against 0.6 percent for manufacturing. Services sit at 0.9 percent, wholesale and retail at 0.6 percent, construction at 0.5 percent and agriculture at 0.3 percent. The pattern reflects AI's capacity to automate repetitive tasks and support new digital services in information-intensive industries.

Where does the money land?

Greater China leads regional projections with $390 billion in 2040, about 1.2 percent of projected regional GDP. North America follows at $290 billion, or 0.7 percent, then Europe at $225 billion, also 0.7 percent. South Asia, including India, is projected at $55 billion, or 0.5 percent of regional GDP. Latin America and the Caribbean reach $70 billion, Southeast Asia $45 billion, GCC states $25 billion and Sub-Saharan Africa $15 billion.

The differences reflect economic size, digital infrastructure, enterprise adoption, workforce capability and expected deployment pace.

What does 6G actually change?

GSMA Intelligence expects commercial 6G networks around 2030, following 5G's commercial launch in 2018. Three capabilities separate the generation from its predecessors: AI-native design that embeds machine learning into radio operations and resource allocation; integrated sensing and communication; and integration of terrestrial networks with satellites.

Sensing resolution could improve from roughly 1.5 metres on a typical 5G carrier to tens of centimetres using upper mid-band and millimetre-wave frequencies. Networks could then detect and monitor objects without each object carrying a connected device. Applications cited include vehicle safety, drone monitoring, industrial automation, smart infrastructure and healthcare monitoring.

AI connectivity is expected to become the largest use-case contributor to 6G economic benefits, ahead of massive IoT and ultra-reliable low-latency communications, enhanced mobile broadband and fixed wireless access, integrated sensing, and non-terrestrial connectivity.

The policy conditions

GSMA cites research associating a 10 percent increase in 5G adoption with an estimated 0.15 percent increase in GDP. For 6G, returns depend on network deployment, device affordability, enterprise investment and applications that exploit advanced capabilities. Spectrum pricing, licence duration, infrastructure and equipment costs, electricity tariffs and regulatory requirements will shape operator investment decisions.

The industry body recommends clear spectrum roadmaps, harmonised allocations and timely availability to give operators confidence in long-term investment. It also cautions that spectrum alone guarantees nothing: enterprises must adopt the technology and integrate it into their operations.

The $1.24 trillion figure remains a modelled projection. With WRC-27 approaching and the first commercial launches expected around 2030, spectrum policy over the next several years will determine how much of the projected value materialises.