GSMA puts 6G spectrum at the heart of a $1.24 trillion forecast

By Daniel Okafor

What underpins GSMA's $1.24 trillion forecast?

GSMA estimates that 6G could generate $1.24 trillion in additional global economic value in 2040, equal to 0.7% of global GDP, if sufficient spectrum becomes available.

That upside requires spectrum. GSMA says insufficient availability could put $520 billion, or 42% of its forecast, at risk.

GSMA's figure represents a trade-body economic scenario, not revenue already secured or investment already committed.

GSMA attributes $390 billion of the 2040 uplift to China, $290 billion to North America and $225 billion to Europe. Together, those three estimates total $905 billion, or 73% of the global projection.

GSMA expects mid-band spectrum to account for 70% of 6G's economic contribution by the end of the next decade. Low-band spectrum should add approximately 25% over the same period through rural coverage, indoor penetration and other locations where higher-frequency signals provide less effective reach.

Which spectrum does GSMA want released first?

GSMA asks governments and regulators to prioritize 2 GHz mid-band availability, then release further capacity to meet the expected increase in 6G demand over time.

The proposed additions cover:

• Release upper 6 GHz spectrum.
• Add capacity in the upper 3.5 GHz, 4.5 GHz and 7 GHz bands.
• Make 600 MHz available for rural 6G coverage.
• Use the 500 MHz band where appropriate.

GSMA also calls for timely national spectrum roadmaps so operators can plan network deployment and investment. The report attaches no release dates to those requests, leaving operator planning tied to national roadmaps and future regulatory decisions.

Where do spectrum policy and standards remain unsettled?

The International Telecommunication Union is examining the 4.4–4.8 GHz and 7.125–8.4 GHz bands for the global spectrum roadmap. In the United States, FCC preparation has produced no agreement among stakeholders over spectrum needs.

The 4 GHz proposition has broad industry backing: GSMA, AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon, Ericsson, Nokia, Qualcomm and Intel. Boeing and Lockheed Martin have raised coexistence and protection concerns for systems operating in and around that band.

GSMA also backs 6.425–7.125 GHz for full-power, licensed macro-cell mobile use, citing sufficient international harmonization to support a large equipment ecosystem for 6G at scale. The same operator group also supports that licensed-use position unanimously, according to GSMA.

U.S. policymakers, Wi-Fi businesses and cable companies instead want 6 GHz preserved for unlicensed use, arguing that the band is needed solely for Wi-Fi.

Can legacy networks lower 6G deployment costs?

Eric Hardouin, board director of the Next Generation Mobile Networks Alliance, frames 6G as an opportunity but makes it conditional on spectrum availability. He says operators need to pair new spectrum in the 6 GHz and 7 GHz bands with legacy 4G and 5G bands to maximize commercially available 6G capacity.

His proposed migration baseline is multi-radio access technology spectrum sharing, known as MRSS. Hardouin called MRSS the “solution of choice for migration.” NGMN research has not yet established whether MRSS can operate without any hardware impact.

Hardouin expects capacity pressure to concentrate in dense urban and other urban areas, while existing 5G capacity should suffice in many rural locations. He expects nationwide coverage obligations to be revisited when regulators auction 6G spectrum.

“Assume that you have a rural area where you have already 5G deployed. ... In that case, without deploying the new frequency band, you could still deploy 6G there,” Hardouin said.

Hardouin's scenario requires a software upgrade but not new radio hardware. Hardouin says the upgrade still carries a cost, but it should remain below the cost of a hardware-led deployment.

Hardouin's model offers a staged path: reuse legacy capacity where possible while adding new spectrum where dense demand requires it. NGMN's continuing research leaves hardware-free sharing unsettled, so operators cannot treat it as a settled implementation result.

What must happen before operators commit to 6G investment?

GSMA's calls for national roadmaps, spectrum releases and coexistence decisions will shape operator plans before the $1.24 trillion 2040 projection becomes a commercial outcome. The immediate contest centers on 2 GHz access, the 4 GHz and 6 GHz allocations under debate, and whether U.S. policymakers can build agreement.

Hardouin's analysis leaves urban capacity dependent on new spectrum, while rural deployment could rely on software upgrades if MRSS proves workable.

The next investment checkpoint is therefore spectrum policy: as national roadmaps and 6G auctions take shape, operators need settled allocations and credible coexistence rules before treating GSMA's 2040 forecast as a rollout plan.