SpaceX Seeks 80,000 Cell Towers, BNP Paribas Puts Price at $100 Billion

SpaceX is negotiating for a minimum of 80,000 US cell towers, and BNP Paribas estimates the company would need to spend at least $100 billion before capturing a dollar of mobile revenue. The figure comes from a detailed bank note examining the Bloomberg report on SpaceX's talks with US tower operators, written by senior analyst Sam McHugh and dated October 27, 2026.

The scale matters. AT&T and Verizon each run roughly 65,000 to 70,000 towers. T-Mobile operates about 85,000. An 80,000-site SpaceX grid would put its coverage on par with the Big Three carriers, dense enough to carry C-Band spectrum, according to the bank.

What changes if SpaceX signs the leases?

The report frames the tower talks as a point of no return. "It's impossible to know if SpaceX is still bluffing for an MVNO here, but it is the last stop on that train," McHugh said. Once SpaceX signs "take or pay" Master Lease Agreements committing to a minimum number of site deployments, cancelling would trigger payments approaching lifetime lease costs.

The bank puts a hard deadline on the decision. SpaceX must choose its path by the upper C-Band auction in April 2027, when spectrum commitments would follow any serious terrestrial build.

BNP Paribas is blunt on the economics. "Before SpaceX could capture a dollar of revenue for its mobile network, without an MVNO it would need to spend at least $100 billion," the note states — roughly one and a half times the tower count of Verizon's entire grid, converted into a decade-scale capital program. The estimate excludes spectrum purchases and the cost of the capital itself.

The bank also punctures a core SpaceX assumption: "In engaging with the tower companies, it is increasingly clear SpaceX does not have a huge network cost advantage from their satellites, if anything there is somewhat of a disadvantage of having to operate both terrestrial and Space infrastructure."

Why the MVNO strategy stalled

SpaceX has counted on becoming a mobile virtual network operator since the start of 2026. Investor feedback consistently indicated the company expected a US MVNO deal, and its early strategy mirrored the cable industry playbook: buy spectrum and use it as a bargaining chip.

That leverage does not exist today. "The telcos are not Spectrum constrained like Verizon was back in the early 2010's, and so this strategy has not worked, leaving SpaceX with the unenviable task of building bottom up if they have a genuine ambition of being a 4th carrier," the note says.

What should carriers do?

The bank's advice to operators is to hold firm. "The Telcos shouldn't budge, but this does create more headline risk," BNP Paribas argues. A refusal to deal carries political danger: SpaceX could exert pressure after the mid-terms, potentially arguing a "concerted refusal to deal" or attacking the satellite joint-venture construct. Any litigation could take years and still fail to produce an MVNO or roaming remedy.

One alternative could come from SpaceX's own 3Q26 earnings call. The bank read it as evidence that much of SpaceX's network ambition targets Physical AI devices — cars, robots — rather than handsets.

Who builds it, and what for?

An 80,000-site build cannot rest on one partner. The bank names American Tower and Crown Castle as probably essential suppliers if the Bloomberg report is accurate.

The bank also sketches a different ending, one aimed at T-Mobile. BNP Paribas suggests T-Mobile — with its more advanced 5G network and relatively low broadband exposure — could offer SpaceX a wholesale "dedicated network slice" for AI devices excluding phones, plus in-store and online resale of Starlink broadband alongside T-Mobile wireless, solving both SpaceX's network needs and T-Mobile's convergence gap.

Even at full build, spectrum depth would remain the constraint. The bank concludes that 80,000 towers combined with roughly 15,000 mobile satellites could create differentiated, ubiquitous coverage, but limited spectrum would ultimately cap SpaceX's subscriber share.