Verizon CEO: SpaceX Would Need $500 Billion to Match Us

Verizon CEO Dan Schulman put a $300 billion to $500 billion price tag on any SpaceX attempt to build a terrestrial rival network, telling a Q3 earnings call the satellite operator would need up to 80,000 cell sites and as long as eight years to get there.

His estimate, delivered in response to questions about SpaceX's planned direct-to-device (D2D) mobile service, frames the most detailed operator counter-argument yet to the Starlink Mobile push. Schulman argued a competitive service would require 65,000 to 80,000 macro sites, backhaul, RAN equipment and substantial power supplies, alongside retail, customer service and back-office operations.

He estimated a full build would take at least four to six years, with spending of $300 billion to $500 billion over seven or eight years. The result, he argued, would leave SpaceX with broadly the same capabilities and cost structure Verizon has today.

What does this change for Verizon?

In the near term, nothing. Schulman said satellite broadband is best suited to remote areas and cannot match terrestrial networks in urban and suburban markets, which account for about 98 per cent of Verizon's revenue. He committed Verizon to improving its network and cost structure while SpaceX builds, pointing to its mmWave spectrum holdings, work on 6G applications and planned AI-enabled services.

"I think that SpaceX realises this, and they're exploring a potential path to creating a terrestrial network," Schulman said. "There's no magic wand, there's no secret sauce, there's no shortcut, there's no radically lower structural cost advantage."

The comments came in the wake of reports that SpaceX is seeking access to at least 80,000 US cell sites for Starlink Mobile. Bloomberg named Crown Castle among the tower companies in discussions over potential leases.

The SpaceX plan on the table

SpaceX's strategy extends beyond tower leases. The company plans to combine satellites with ground-based radios, supported by an agreement to acquire up to 14MHz of paired 800MHz spectrum from Grain Management. The D2D service built on that spectrum is expected to launch in early 2028.

That timeline gives US operators a multi-year window. Schulman's cost analysis is effectively a bet that SpaceX cannot shortcut the economics of terrestrial coverage, even with launch capacity and satellite manufacturing advantages in hand.

MVNO door closed

Schulman ruled out an MVNO agreement with a satellite provider, saying he saw no benefit whatsoever in extending such a deal. He also stated Verizon's existing agreements do not offer back-door access to its infrastructure.

He left room for cooperation on complementary coverage in areas terrestrial networks do not reach, a posture consistent with the industry's existing D2D partnerships for messaging and rural reach.

"It's very hard to throw a punch against something that doesn't exist, but once they come into the market, we will be ferociously competitive," Schulman said.

A careful reading of the rival

The CEO's tone was measured rather than dismissive. "I'd just start off by saying my operating philosophy in general is to be very thoughtful, be analytic and to never take anything for granted," he said when asked about the threat a SpaceX D2D service could pose to US operators.

"I always have my eyes wide open," Schulman added. "Clearly, the tech industry and the wireless landscape is rapidly evolving, and we need to rapidly evolve along with that."

He said he operates "under the assumption that everything SpaceX says they will do, they will do, and that they will execute flawlessly" — a framing that treats the satellite operator as a capable future competitor rather than a distant hypothetical.

AT&T weighs in

Verizon is not alone in addressing the question. Last week AT&T CEO John Stankey outlined the advantages he sees over the potential threat of SpaceX's D2D service during his own Q3 earnings call, arguing scale matters in the satellite debate.

Both CEOs' remarks signal that US operators now treat SpaceX as a serious future entrant, with the competitive test expected around the early-2028 D2D launch window.