Advertising revenue from Nordic hybrid streaming subscriptions is set to rise from around €150 million in 2026 to nearly €450 million in 2030, roughly a tripling in four years, according to a new forecast from the analysis firm Mediavision. Advertising's share of total streaming revenue is expected to more than double over the same period, from 6 per cent to 13 per cent.

The forecast, published on 15 October, covers the Nordic paid streaming market, which has grown strongly over the past decade. Mediavision attributes that growth mainly to more paying households and additional subscriptions. The market should keep expanding through 2030, but with new drivers in which advertising carries a steadily larger financial weight.

What is driving the shift?

The core change is the spread of ad-supported subscription tiers, known in the industry as hybrid VoD. Services that once competed purely for consumers' monthly subscription spending are now also competing for advertisers' budgets. That shift puts viewing time, not just subscriber counts, at the centre of streaming economics.

"For the players, it is no longer just about how many subscribers they have, but also about how much those subscribers watch and how that viewing can be converted into revenue," said Fredrik Liljeqvist, Head of Analysis at Mediavision.

Mediavision reports that viewing is already moving towards advertising-carrying subscriptions across the Nordic region. The revenue forecast follows that behavioural shift rather than anticipating one.

Which launches matter most?

Two platform moves stand out in Mediavision's account. Prime Video's entry into the regional advertising market is already reshaping conditions, and Netflix's upcoming ad-supported launch in the Nordics is expected to accelerate the development further.

"As more and more streaming services combine subscription fees with advertising, the conditions for the entire market are changing. Prime Video's entry and Netflix's upcoming launch are expected to accelerate this development," Liljeqvist said.

He added that competition for advertisers' investments is intensifying at the same time as streaming grows as an advertising channel in its own right. With more viewers and greater reach, ad-supported streaming is likely to become an increasingly attractive option for advertisers, he concluded.

What does this mean for operators and broadcasters?

For Nordic telecom operators, the forecast signals a maturing of the streaming value chain in their home markets. As hybrid tiers multiply, the battle for screen time intensifies across mobile and fixed networks, and the ad-funded share of that traffic grows from a small base to a double-digit slice of industry revenue by 2030.

The commercial reality behind the numbers is straightforward: subscriber growth alone carried the market for a decade, and that engine is giving way to monetisation of viewing. A market where 13 per cent of revenue comes from advertising is a market where churn, engagement and ad inventory matter as much as acquisition.

Mediavision expects growth to continue through 2030, with advertising set to become an increasingly important part of streaming services' business across the Nordics as the major platforms roll out and scale their hybrid tiers.