By Elena Vasquez, Telecom Gazette, at MIPCOM

Streaming services will make more money from advertising tiers than from premium subscriptions by 2029, according to Ampere Analysis, with ad-tier revenues projected to reach around $60 billion (€53.6 billion) by 2030 against $55 billion for premium. Guy Bisson, executive director and cofounder at the research firm, opened his MIPCOM session The New Economics of Content, Why Advertising Matters with a blunt verdict: "advertising is the future (of growth)" in the streaming market.

The numbers behind that claim have been building for years. Since 2021, the count of ad-supported subscribers has grown constantly and has overtaken declining premium subscriptions in both Europe and North America. In Western markets, Bisson said, more subscribers will see ads on global streaming platforms than not at some point in 2026.

What is changing in programming strategy?

The shift is already reshaping what streamers commission. "The type of content that works has changed," Bisson told the audience in Cannes. "Unscripted content suddenly becomes interesting," he suggested, because the genre allows more ads per hour viewed.

Between Q2 2022 and Q2 2026, only Apple increased its volume of scripted content, positioning itself as the home of premium drama. The share of content hours that are unscripted has reached 50 per cent on Disney+ in 2026 and 65 per cent on HBO Max.

The commercial logic is straightforward. "On US streaming services in September 2026, unscripted viewers saw up to 24 per cent more ad minutes each hour than scripted viewers. The shorter formats allow for more ads to be wrapped in," Bisson advised.

How fast are ad loads growing?

Streamers still market their ad tiers as a premium experience, but the advertising minutes themselves are climbing quickly. Between January and September 2026, Netflix increased its advertising volume in the US by 90 per cent. The AVoD platform Pluto TV limited itself to a slightly more than 60 per cent increase over the same period.

Pricing is doing its part to push subscribers toward ads. In Western markets, the cost of upgrading from an ad tier to ad-free is multiplied by 1.8 for Netflix in France and 1.5 for HBO Max and Paramount+. The upgrade penalty is highest in Germany, Italy and Spain.

Why are local broadcasters back in demand?

Ad viewers remain a harder audience to monetise in one respect, because they watch less often. That gap has turned legacy broadcasters into valuable allies. "Though ad viewers are a challenge because they watch less often, the local ad-supported experts like TF1, France Télévisions, M6 in France or RTVE in Spain then become interesting partners for the global streamers," Bisson said.

The deal flow supports his point. In Spain, Netflix announced an expanded content deal with AtresMedia, owner of the Antena 3 commercial channel, following a similar agreement with TF1 in France.

Advertising is also driving experimentation with formats. In August, Disney concluded a deal with TikTok allowing creators to use its IP to make short-form content — a route that fits the ad-wrapped, short-format economics Bisson described.

With ad-tier revenue on track to pass premium by decade's end and ad loads rising month by month, the question for streamers is no longer whether advertising works, but how far they can push ad minutes before the "premium" label stops meaning anything.