IDC sees global telecom and pay-TV spend at $1.58tn in 2026

By Daniel Okafor

How large is the forecast?

IDC Research expects worldwide spending on telecommunication and pay-TV services to reach $1.58tn (€1.41tn) in 2026, up 2.3% year on year, according to its Worldwide Semiannual Telecom Services Tracker.

The November 9, 2026 forecast is slightly more optimistic than the forecast IDC published earlier in 2026. It assumes total market growth is 0.5 percentage points higher than in that earlier forecast.

The 2.3% uplift measures nominal revenue, not real consumption.

What drives the 2.3% increase?

Accelerating inflation is the forecast’s main force, with energy prices expected to remain elevated for some time as the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine continue. Those energy costs raise operators’ operating expenses. Operators will likely raise tariffs to protect margins.

Most countries require regulatory approval before tariff changes. IDC expects that benefit to spread across the remainder of 2026 and 2027.

The uplift remains nominal rather than genuine market expansion. Historical market growth has consistently fallen below official annual inflation, indicating contraction in real terms. For operators, the near-term commercial gain depends on tariff timing, not stronger underlying demand.

Where will tariff-led growth appear strongest?

In Europe and North America, higher purchasing power and lower price elasticity make the tariff-led scenario most likely, while fewer customers will switch to cheaper packages or give up non-essential services. Africa and parts of Asia Pacific face different economics. Weaker purchasing power should prompt customers to move toward cheaper plans or lower-cost operators.

Nominal revenue growth will therefore lag well behind headline tariff increases. Under IDC’s taxonomy, Africa sits within wider EMEA, where Europe dominates spending and masks expected African weakness. EMEA’s relatively high overall growth rate will therefore conceal the weaker African outcome.

Which services change the market mix?

IDC expects established service trends to persist despite the revised headline forecast, as demand shifts toward data-led consumption and away from older voice and television products.

• Mobile remains the largest segment. Growth in mobile data and M2M applications will more than offset declining spending on mobile voice and messaging.
• Fixed voice spending will fall over the forecast period. Legacy TDM voice revenue is declining rapidly, while growth in IP voice will not compensate fully.
• Traditional pay-TV will decline as VoD and OTT services grow more popular.
• Fixed data services will expand as demand for higher-bandwidth connections keeps increasing.

Why does satellite broadband have limited reach?

Low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellite broadband will support fixed-data growth, but IDC expects its impact to remain limited because the market stays concentrated among a few players, including Starlink and Amazon Leo. These providers will focus on selected customer groups.

• Rural and remote households.
• Maritime and aviation customers.
• Enterprises and governments needing resilient backup links.

Telecom operators remain largely bystanders in LEO broadband. IDC gives no subscriber, coverage or throughput figures for Starlink, Amazon Leo or their LEO services. Its forecast therefore treats LEO as support for fixed data, not a market-wide displacement of terrestrial networks.

What does direct-to-device change?

Direct-to-device services have emerged in recent years on a different model, with direct-to-cell (D2C), satellite IoT and other offerings built through partnerships between satellite and mobile operators. IDC sees far higher growth potential than LEO broadband. Operators can use satellite coverage to differentiate their offers and extend coverage beyond terrestrial network reach.

In D2D, operators participate directly and own the customer relationship; in LEO, they remain largely bystanders. Kresimir Alic, research director for Worldwide Telecom Services at IDC, said: “The future of connectivity will not be defined by the choice between the ground and the sky, but by how seamlessly the two work together.”

In the same statement, Alic said: “Operators that treat satellites as an extension of their networks, rather than a rival to them, will be better placed to improve customer loyalty, protect revenues, and connect the next billion users.”

That is a strategic proposition, not a quantified forecast. IDC supplies no subscriber, coverage or throughput targets for D2D.

Over the remainder of 2026 and 2027, regulatory approvals will pace tariff-driven revenue gains, while D2D partnerships offer operators a structural route to extending coverage.