IDC tips global telecom and pay-TV spend to hit $1.6 trillion

Worldwide spending on telecoms and pay-TV services will reach $1.6 trillion this year, IDC forecast, as inflation and elevated energy costs push operators to raise tariffs and hunt for new growth in direct-to-device satellite partnerships.

The research company's telecoms services tracker puts year-on-year growth at 2.3% for 2026. Price, not volume, is the main driver. IDC stated energy prices are expected to remain elevated for some time, with conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine continuing to push operator costs up.

The commercial logic follows directly. Operators will likely raise tariffs to protect margins, IDC stated, and those increases will benefit market growth across the remainder of 2026 and throughout 2027. Revenue growth, in other words, is partly an accounting effect of inflation rather than a surge in demand.

Where will the growth land?

Geographically, IDC tipped the Americas to experience the highest growth in spending, followed by EMEA and then Asia-Pacific.

By segment, mobile is expected to remain the largest. Growth in data usage and machine-to-machine applications will more than offset declining spending on voice and messaging. The decline of legacy services continues, but M2M and data carry the market.

Fixed data has its own catalyst: low Earth orbit satellite broadband. IDC expects the rising popularity of LEO services to support fixed data growth, but it drew a sharp line between hype and market structure. The impact will be limited, the analyst noted, because LEO broadband benefits only select providers — it named SpaceX Starlink and Amazon Leo.

What changes for operators in satellite?

The real opportunity for telecoms within satellite, IDC argued, comes from direct-to-device, which relies on partnerships between the two sectors rather than competition between them. These partnerships let operators use satellite coverage to differentiate their offers and to extend coverage into areas their terrestrial networks do not reach.

Kresimir Alic, research director for Worldwide Telecom Services at IDC, framed the choice facing operators. The future of connectivity will not be defined by the choice between ground and sky, he said, "but by how seamlessly the two work together."

Alic added: "Operators that treat satellites as an extension of their networks, rather than a rival to them, will be better placed to improve customer loyalty, protect revenues and connect the next billion users."

The framing matters commercially. Starlink and Leo are capturing the standalone LEO broadband market, and IDC's numbers suggest operators cannot count on that segment for broad-based growth. Direct-to-device flips the equation: the operator keeps the customer relationship and the revenue, while the satellite operator supplies reach.

The outlook through 2027

Strip away the satellite narrative and IDC's forecast describes a market growing at low single digits on the back of price increases. Inflation lifts revenue. Energy costs squeeze it. Tariff rises are the balancing mechanism, and they will carry growth through the end of 2026 and into 2027.

The strategic question for operators is whether D2D partnerships can add genuine incremental revenue — new subscribers beyond terrestrial footprints, better retention in marginal coverage zones — before the tariff lever runs out. IDC's view is that operators embracing satellites as network extension, rather than rival, will be the ones positioned to protect revenues and capture the next wave of connected users.