By Rebecca Stone

A projection circulating through Mobile World Live this week puts global 6G connections at 2.4 billion by 2035 — a figure that, if it holds, would mark the fastest ramp of any mobile generation since LTE.

The headline number does the talking, but the underlying assumptions do not. Mobile World Live's reporting carried no on-the-record commentary, leaving the source of the 2.4 billion estimate, its methodology, and its regional breakdown undisclosed.

That absence matters. A forecast that nearly doubles the current 5G installed base inside a decade carries weight only if readers can see the model behind it. For context, 5G crossed the one billion-subscription mark roughly five years after the first commercial launches in 2019, reaching about 1.7 billion connections by late 2024 according to industry tallies. The implied 6G trajectory — 2.4 billion in roughly fifteen years from initial commercial deployments expected around 2030 — is faster on a per-year basis than any prior generational ramp.

Where do the standards actually stand?

Commercial 6G networks remain a decade away in most markets. The ITU's IMT-2030 framework, which defines the high-level performance requirements for the next generation, has not completed its final recommendation.

3GPP, the body that produces the radio specifications operators actually deploy, has only begun early study work on what will become Release 21 — the release most observers expect to carry the first formal 6G specifications.

Vendor activity mirrors that timeline. Ericsson, Nokia, Samsung and Huawei have run sub-terahertz and AI-native air-interface trials, but none has progressed past lab or limited field-test stages. Spectrum awards for the frequencies 6G will rely on — broadly expected in the mid-band and sub-THz ranges — are not on the calendar in major markets before 2028.

What does the forecast fail to address?

Three questions sit underneath any 2.4 billion headline:

• Device economics. 5G handsets took roughly three years to fall below the $200 price point in volume. Comparable 6G silicon pricing has not been modeled publicly.
• Operator capex. Hyperscale 5G rollouts in the U.S., China and Europe absorbed the bulk of telecom capital spending through 2024. Operators have not yet earmarked 6G budgets.
• Use case justification. The 6G pitch — holographic communications, integrated sensing, AI-native radio — has yet to be matched to a paying customer segment.

How should the industry read the number?

Forecast ramp-ups at this stage of a generation are useful as directional signals, not commitments. Operators carrying 5G standalone traffic in 2025 are not allocating capital to 6G, and the device ecosystem is years away from reference designs in volume.

The 2.4 billion estimate is best read as a ceiling rather than a floor. If the ITU completes IMT-2030 on schedule, if at least two major economies auction 6G spectrum before 2030, and if mid-band 6G handsets reach mass-market pricing within five years of launch, the figure could land close to right. Miss any one of those conditions and 2035 looks different.

For now, the forecast places the industry on a timeline, not a trajectory. Whether the curve bends up or down from here depends less on analyst models and more on regulators, operators, and the silicon roadmap none of them control yet.