GSMA Intelligence expects global 6G connections to reach 2.4 billion by 2035, climbing from roughly 50 million at the end of 2030 following the technology's first commercial launches.

In its latest mobile technology forecasts, the research arm of the GSMA anticipates a gradual adoption curve for the sixth mobile generation. By the end of 2030, 6G should account for just 0.5% of all mobile connections worldwide.

The growth accelerates quickly after that. GSMA Intelligence projects 275 million connections by the end of 2031, then close to 740 million in 2032. In 2023-equivalent terms, that trajectory would already put 6G ahead of several established technologies today.

The one-billion mark falls in 2033, with the year closing at 1.3 billion connections. The forecast then shows 1.9 billion in 2034 and 2.4 billion in 2035.

Two-phase rollout

GSMA Intelligence models the first 6G cycle in two phases. Between 2020-era standards work and commercial reality, the operator association frames the period from 2030 to 2032 as a launch and ecosystem-building stage, driven by early deployments. From 2033 onward, the technology begins operating at global scale.

The forecast carries an important caveat for operators weighing investment timing: 6G growth will not come at the expense of 5G. By the end of 2035, 5G will still represent around 60% of global mobile connections, against 23% for 6G. Legacy 4G networks will also remain in service across many markets.

China sets the pace

China "will inevitably have a significant influence" on global 6G figures given its scale, according to GSMA Intelligence. The country should account for more than half of all 6G connections by 2035.

It will not be alone at that level of adoption. The forecaster expects "several of the major mobile countries to show around half of their connections in 6G" by the middle of the next decade.

Matthew Iji, head of data modelling and forecasting at GSMA Intelligence, cautions that the 2035 figures should be read as a milestone rather than an endpoint for 6G.

"By 2035, 6G will be firmly established in the global mobile technology landscape, but it will coexist with a much larger 5G base and a 4G footprint that will continue to play an essential role in many countries," said Iji. "This coexistence will likely be one of the defining characteristics of the early 6G era."

Slow start, then scale

The numbers underline how different early 6G adoption will look from the marketing narrative that typically surrounds new generations. At 0.5% of connections by end-2030, the technology's first year on the market will register as a rounding error in global terms.

The picture changes rapidly in the second phase. Between end-2032 and end-2035, GSMA Intelligence expects connections to more than triple, from 740 million to 2.4 billion, as deployments move from first-mover markets to worldwide scale.

Even then, the installed base tells a story of continuity rather than replacement. Nearly four in five mobile connections will still run on 4G or 5G networks in 2035, meaning operators will manage three generations of technology simultaneously for years into the 6G era.

With first launches pencilled in for 2030, spectrum assignment, standards finalisation and vendor equipment readiness over the next five years will determine whether GSMA Intelligence's launch-phase timeline holds.