6G may need 2–2.5 GHz of mid-band spectrum per market

Around 350 5G networks are in operation today, while more than five billion 6G connections are forecast for 2040, when 6G is expected to have only just become dominant after a 2035–2037 crossover from 5G.

That timetable makes the 2030s a period of coexistence rather than a clean handover. 5G and 6G will operate alongside one another, so decisions on spectrum, standards and investment today will shape capacity and access throughout the decade.

The forecasts remain projections. The analysis gives no forecast methodology, deployment schedule by market or vendor benchmarks, so its 2040 connection count should be read as a planning scenario rather than a committed rollout.

What has to be ready before 6G arrives?

Mobile generations move through a long sequence of planning, capital spending, regulation and standard-setting. Harmonization does not require every country to use identical systems, but it does require agreement on foundational spectrum, standards and policy parameters.

• Spectrum capable of supporting wide 200–400 MHz channels in relevant bands, providing raw capacity for higher data rates while enabling more efficient radio technologies, better network economics and future AI-native services.
• Final 3GPP work on globally agreed standards that will form the technical basis of 6G.
• National digital policies that prioritize network investment so infrastructure can support productivity and economic growth.

These processes take years. That timetable leaves regulators, standards bodies and operators little room to solve spectrum or investment uncertainty after commercial launches begin.

Is 5G investment already finished?

5G launched in 2018 and is only now entering its dominant phase; connections are expected to overtake 4G later in this decade. Its original promise was a consistent user experience, which required time and investment rather than a single launch event.

• Continued spending on 5G standalone to expand capacity, improve quality and support the next stage of network development.
• Further investment in 5G-Advanced, which is expected to add capability and stimulate additional traffic growth.

The commercial rationale is straightforward: better quality encourages more data consumption, and the analysis expects both standalone and 5G-Advanced investment to improve productivity. Yet spectrum remains a prerequisite for realizing those benefits.

If spectrum availability stays at today’s levels, cities containing more than 50% of the world’s urban population will be capacity-constrained by 2030.

The less dramatic explanation is that 5G has succeeded by quietly keeping pace with data demand, not by delivering a “killer application.” That framing challenges the idea that one use case will determine investment or subscriber growth.

However, the analysis provides no operator-level subscriber totals, coverage percentages, throughput figures or capital expenditure. Its claims about productivity and traffic growth therefore remain projections, and no vendor marketing claim is independently tested here.

Why connections could grow faster than subscriber counts

Capacity demand will not stop when 6G arrives. Faster, more responsive networks encourage users to consume more data and make new applications practical, so connection growth can outpace human subscriber growth.

The analysis offers a scale for that gap: around 8.8 billion mobile connections exist today against 5.8 billion unique subscribers. The gap already reflects multiple-device ownership, and it need not map one-to-one to additional people.

AI, sensing, vehicles, machines and other continuously connected devices could widen that gap. For 6G, spectrum policy cannot focus only on peak speed: mid-bands must carry dense demand, while low-bands preserve geographic coverage and a consistent experience between urban and rural areas.

That balance matters commercially. More capacity at the right locations can support new services, but the analysis does not quantify which applications will generate returns, leaving the revenue case dependent on usage that has not yet arrived.

How much spectrum will 6G need?

Regulators face two linked tasks before 6G spectrum becomes available in the 2030s. First, policy must make investment attractive by releasing sufficient spectrum on time, without artificial constraints or unnecessarily high reserve prices.

The analysis puts the licensing lesson this way: spectrum’s value lies in “the economic and social value created by the networks that use it,” not in the upfront revenue collected.

Auction history supports that warning. Expensive 3G awards showed the risk of chasing license revenue ahead of network investment; 4G policy then placed more emphasis on rollout and network economics.

The tension returned in 5G. Some fragmented 3.5 GHz awards lacked a clear route to more spectrum, even as operators sought contiguous 100 MHz channels, and high spectrum costs exposed the need for a long-term roadmap.

Second, regulators must understand industry requirements. The analysis estimates that 6G will need 200–400 MHz channels per operator, plus sufficient overall mid-band capacity for each market.

By 2035–2040, the average requirement may reach 2–2.5 GHz of mid-band spectrum per market; higher-demand markets may need 2.4–3.3 GHz. These are planning ranges, not auction quantities or dates, and they do not mean every market should receive the full allocation at once.

A staged roadmap would give operators visibility for long-term network planning. The analysis adds that “widespread harmonization will deliver economies of scale and help keep devices affordable,” although both benefits depend on consistent adoption by regulators and manufacturers.

With more than five billion 6G connections projected for 2040, the test will be whether spectrum, standards and investment policy align before the 2035–2037 crossover, rather than whether 6G can be declared ready on a fixed date.