SpaceX to Buy Veon by 2030 Among Analyst Firm's Boldest Calls

Analyst firm FDM CCS Insight has predicted SpaceX will buy Veon Group by 2030, one of 100 forecasts unveiled this week at an invite-only event in London. The company claims 49% of its predictions over 13 years have come true.

The forecasts, released at what has become a fixed date on the industry calendar, span AI, satellite, devices, operators and 6G. Mobile World Live highlighted 15 of the most striking calls.

More AI agents than people

Ian Fogg of FDM CCS Insight asserted there will be more AI agents than people in the average household by 2030. The average household has 2.64 people, yet already contains 7.46 agent-capable devices, counting smartphone operating systems, smart home devices and apps.

"It doesn't take a lot for this prediction to come true," noted Fogg. "Plus, many devices will run several agents."

Qualcomm's Ben Timmons went further in a fireside chat at the event. "It's going to be pretty quick for the agent to become central to everything you do in your personal and worklife," he said. "In two years' time I predict people will be letting their agents have access to financial data too – they will be converted."

The outlook is darker for OpenAI. The analysts predict the Generative AI pioneer will undergo a debt restructuring and CEO Sam Altman will be shown the door by 2028. The firm expects OpenAI to fail to convince investors it has a viable commercial model while struggling with escalating costs, concerns over data centres' electricity and water use, and the high price of silicon needed to power AI services.

In networks, T-Mobile US is tipped to be the first operator to deploy AI radio access network technology, following an AI-RAN voice call first earlier this month. The call comes in a busy week for AI-RAN, with chief proponent Nvidia unveiling a series of operator trial deals.

What happens to Starlink and Europe's satellites?

The satellite predictions cut both ways for Elon Musk's SpaceX. Alongside the Veon acquisition forecast — Veon is Starlink's biggest operator customer to date — the analysts fear SpaceX will fail to win any mobile satellite spectrum in the EU's 2027 allocation.

In the same year, they predict the EU will back a third satellite ecosystem to rival Starlink and AST SpaceMobile, built around Elveo and SES. That forecast gained weight from this week's news that several major European operator groups are teaming on an alternative to Musk's offering.

Why does Apple change course on 6G?

The standout 6G prediction reverses Apple's historical pattern. The first iPhone did not even connect to 3G, with most users relying on Wi-Fi for fast browsing. Yet Apple is forecast to have a 6G iPhone available alongside the first 6G commercial networks, thanks to the company now producing its own cellular modem.

Elsewhere, the analysts expect operators in all initial 6G markets will launch 5G-Advanced first, and one in ten smartphones sold in 2030 will support 6G. The earliest target date for commercial 6G launch is generally accepted as 2029.

Who buys 1&1, and where does Digi go next?

Following recent high-profile mergers in Spain, the UK and France, Germany looks set to be Europe's next consolidation market. The analysts predict 1&1 will be acquired by one of its rivals in 2027, with Telefonica tipped as the most likely buyer of the country's fourth player.

Romania-based Digi Communications, already established as one of Europe's fastest-rising challenger brands with a presence in Spain, Belgium, Portugal and Italy, is forecast to enter three new European markets by 2028.

Camera glasses, contact lenses and cheap phones

The device forecasts take some unusual turns. After months of backlash against Meta's smart version of the Ray-Ban Wayfarers, the analysts predict sales of regular Ray-Ban Wayfarer sunglasses will plummet in 2027 as people fear being asked to remove glasses they did not realise were ordinary. Regulatory pressure will follow: in 2028, 'camera in use' indicators are predicted to become mandatory on wearable AI devices sold in the EU.

In a nod to Black Mirror, a smart contact lens is forecast to receive regulatory approval in a major market by 2031.

Longer device life cycles and a more circular approach to smartphone ownership, fuelled partly by mounting industry costs, spell bad news for the low-cost segment. By 2028, the sub-$150 retail tier is predicted to disappear from major smartphone markets in the West — a move FDM CCS Insight senior partner Ben Wood describes as "a big blow" for manufacturers that relied on ultralow-cost devices to boost sales volumes and expand access to mobile technology.

With roughly half of its past forecasts having landed, the firm's 2027-and-beyond outlook gives the industry a dated, testable roadmap to argue with.