KeyBanc Projects Charter to Shed Over 3 Million Internet Subscribers by 2028

Charter Communications could lose more than 3 million internet subscribers by the end of 2028, according to a new analysis from KeyBanc Capital Markets. The projection lands on a company that still holds 34.5 million broadband subscribers, making it the largest ISP in the United States.

The investment bank's numbers are specific and steep. KeyBanc projects Charter will lose approximately 973,000 internet subscribers in 2026, 1.15 million in 2027 and another 1.04 million in 2028, according to the analysis published Nov. 3. Combined, those annual figures add up to more than 3.1 million net losses across the three-year period. Put in perspective, that erosion would remove roughly nine percent of Charter's current broadband base — a rate of decline that few incumbents of its scale have absorbed while remaining the market leader.

Why does KeyBanc expect the losses?

The analysis ties the projected decline to two pressures working at the same time. The first is growing competition in Charter's footprint. The second is the operational weight of integrating Cox Communications, the cable operator Charter is working to absorb. Each factor alone would test subscriber retention; together they frame a multi-year period in which Charter's broadband base shrinks rather than stabilizes.

The KeyBanc view is not an outlier read on Charter's current trajectory. The company has already reported subscriber erosion this year, dropping 172,000 broadband customers in a weak second quarter that drew wide coverage across the trade press. The bank's 2026 projection of roughly 973,000 losses extends that run-rate into a full-year figure and then assumes the pressure intensifies in 2027 before easing only slightly in 2028.

For practitioners watching the U.S. broadband market, the pattern matters more than any single quarter. Fixed wireless access expansion and fiber overbuilding continue to carve into cable's subscriber base across the country, and Charter sits at the center of that exposure with the largest share of the market. A 34.5 million-subscriber base gives Charter scale advantages, but scale also means every point of competitive encroachment translates into large absolute losses.

What does the Cox integration add to the picture?

The Cox deal is the strategic variable in KeyBanc's model. Merging two large cable operations typically demands attention on billing migrations, product harmonization and network consolidation, and analysts read that workload as a drag on subscriber performance during the transition window. KeyBanc's timeline places the heaviest projected losses — 1.15 million in 2027 — in the middle of the integration period, not at its edges.

There is also a commercial signal here for vendors and partners. A subscriber base declining by roughly one million connections per year changes equipment demand, upgrade sequencing and the economics of network investment, even where the operator remains the country's largest ISP. Suppliers tracking Charter's capital plans will watch whether the projected losses force any revision to spending commitments.

The other figure worth holding onto is the cumulative one. More than 3.1 million net losses over three years is the headline number in the KeyBanc analysis, and it frames the period through 2028 as one of managed contraction for Charter rather than recovery. Whether the Cox integration completes on schedule, and whether competitive pressure eases after 2027, will determine if the bank's most conservative reading holds.