Höttges: SpaceX Needs $200 Billion to Match US Big Three

Deutsche Telekom CEO Tim Höttges put a $200 billion price tag on what SpaceX would need to spend, plus years of construction and more spectrum, to build a US mobile network that matches the three incumbents.

He delivered the estimate at the Q3 results press conference, days after Qualcomm said it will supply 5G components for a SpaceX nationwide terrestrial network spanning tens of thousands of sites. Reports also place SpaceX in talks with tower companies over access to 80,000 sites for a hybrid satellite-terrestrial build, alongside recent spectrum purchases.

"We are taking this upcoming competition very seriously because we are assuming that it's coming ... and they will enter the market with a different business model," Höttges told journalists through a translator.

What does SpaceX's spectrum position actually look like?

Höttges did not dispute the threat. He quantified it instead. SpaceX holds 79MHz of low- and midband spectrum, which he compared to a "dirt track" next to T-Mobile's 400MHz "autobahn."

That gap frames the buildout problem. SpaceX can add spectrum through future auctions or acquisitions. Neither is fast. Each adds cost on top of the roughly $200 billion Höttges cited for a comparable network.

The market has already priced some of this in. DT's share price has taken a hit, along with Verizon and AT&T, as investors assume SpaceX will take US telco market share.

"When you look at the multiples of Verizon, AT&T, and Telekom, and how much these companies have lost over the past six months," Höttges said, the market expects "these three competitors will generate fewer returns. ... [A] new market entrant can gain market share in this environment, and that may also lead to more price pressure."

Why T-Mobile is not for sale

The US carries most of DT's weight. T-Mobile accounted for 65.7% of the group's €31.1 billion ($34.9 billion) in Q3 net revenue — roughly two dollars in every three. Germany contributed €6.6 billion ($7.7 billion). The US also delivered €8.1 billion ($9.1 billion) of the group's total €12.2 billion ($13.7 billion) adjusted EBITDA AL, about two-thirds of group earnings.

DT owns approximately 55% of T-Mobile. Asked about speculation that SpaceX could buy the operator outright, Höttges was blunt: "We have no interest whatsoever in selling our business."

He then walked through the strategic logic a buyer or builder faces. "Satellite alone isn't enough, you always need terrestrial coverage. … Is it better to buy a company for that or build it up from scratch? There are three listed companies, and [Musk] will have to make up his mind what he wants to do."

Höttges clarified that DT has no such deal "on the radar" and called his remarks "just a theoretical exploration" of whether SpaceX will make or buy a US network. He also noted SpaceX cannot "walk over water." Vendor marketing around the Qualcomm deal describes a huge rollout; no deployment figures, timelines or site counts have been committed publicly beyond the reported negotiations.

How did Q3 land for the group?

The quarter itself gave Höttges room to be relaxed. Net revenue rose 7.5% year on year to €31.1 billion ($34.9 billion). Service revenue grew 6.1% to €26 billion ($29.2 billion). Adjusted net profit climbed 12.7% to €3 billion ($3.4 billion).

In Germany, revenue grew 3.1% on higher mobile and fixed-network service revenue.

DT responded by raising full-year guidance. Adjusted EBITDA AL moves from €47.5 billion ($53.3 billion) to €47.6 billion ($53.4 billion). Free cash flow after leases goes from €20 billion ($22.4 billion) to €20.1 billion ($22.5 billion).

Shareholders get more too. DT plans a 10% dividend increase versus 2025, to €1.01 ($1.13) per share, plus buybacks of up to €2 billion ($2.24 billion) in 2027.

The competitive question now runs on two clocks. DT's own numbers improve quarter by quarter. SpaceX's terrestrial network, on Höttges' arithmetic, needs years, more spectrum and about $200 billion before it can compete on equal terms.