Clear Street has reiterated a $115 price target and BUY rating on AST SpaceMobile, and its analysts believe the operator holds a six-month lead over SpaceX in the race to deliver cellular broadband from orbit.

The investment house published its assessment amid a wave of bank reports on the satellite sector, many of them focused on market anxiety over AST's delayed launch schedule. Clear Street concedes the constraint is real: AST currently depends on Falcon 9, a rocket owned by its direct competitor SpaceX. Every BlueBird slip gets priced in real time, the analysts note.

What changes for AST if New Glenn returns?

The pivotal event for AST is Blue Origin's New Glenn returning to flight in December, according to the report. The rocket has been grounded since the May 28 pad explosion.

The capacity difference is substantial. One New Glenn flight carries up to eight BlueBirds, almost three Falcon 9 flights' worth, where Falcon 9 accommodates three. Clear Street expects a clean December return to take until mid-2027 to translate into satellites on orbit. ULA's Vulcan helps indirectly, the analysts add, by pulling Amazon and Space Force demand off Falcon 9.

"AST currently depends on Falcon 9, a rocket owned by competitor SpaceX. That pressure could ease if other rockets return to service, particularly [Blue Origin's] New Glenn, which carries up to eight BlueBirds per flight versus three on Falcon 9," Clear Street said. "Our model continues to see AST reaching commercial broadband service by mid-2027 (Estimated)."

Is SpaceX's own launch risk underpriced?

Clear Street argues the market scrutinises AST's schedule while underestimating the competitor's. SpaceX's next-generation V2 phone satellites — the hardware needed to hit its timeline — depend on Starship, which remains unproven.

The arithmetic is demanding. SpaceX's stated goal is initial global coverage with about 1,200 satellites within six months of starting launches in mid-2027, at roughly 50 satellites per Starship flight. By Clear Street's math, that requires about 24 Starship flights in six months, roughly one per week, from a rocket with no regular cadence. Starship Flight 15 has already slipped from October 19 to November 8 at the earliest.

"We think AST remains positioned about six months ahead of SpaceX," the analysts said. They see SpaceX service landing in early 2028 at best. The analysts also note SpaceX's EchoStar spectrum does not arrive until around late 2027, and they do not expect the larger V2 satellites to fly in volume on Falcon 9 — the FCC-approved V2 constellation is the real threat to AST, but only if Starship delivers.

Where has AST already won?

On the commercial front, Clear Street points to signed contracts. Japan's ministry initially selected the AST SpaceMobile-Rakuten Group venture for its approximately $1 billion J-LEO program over a competing KDDI-SpaceX bid. A subsequent US-Japan joint statement named the partnership, giving the venture government-level backing in a market where it beat its rival head-to-head.

The report frames the AST-versus-SpaceX contest as the market's favourite debate, with both sides carrying genuine launch risk — AST's microanalysed by investors, SpaceX's underappreciated. For direct-to-device practitioners, the practical takeaway is timing: Clear Street's model puts AST commercial broadband service at mid-2027, with SpaceX roughly six months behind, contingent on New Glenn's December return and Starship proving a weekly cadence it has yet to demonstrate.