Global satellite services revenues will grow 44% to $145 billion (€129 billion) by 2035, according to the 33rd edition of Novaspace's Satellite Connectivity and Video Market report — and nearly $100 billion of that will come from data services alone.

That figure marks the structural change at the heart of the forecast. Data services accounted for 26% of satellite services revenues in 2025; by 2035 Novaspace expects them to reach 68%. In roughly a decade, the industry's revenue base will flip from video-dominated to connectivity-dominated.

Video still generates the largest share of satellite services revenues today. The forecast does not claim that changes this year, or next. What changes is where growth comes from.

Which segments carry the growth?

Three markets will do most of the work through 2035:

• Consumer Broadband: +$22.6 billion in added revenues
• Military satcoms: +$19.2 billion
• Enterprise Networks: +$17.2 billion

The report identifies milsatcom as a standout. "Milsatcom is emerging as a particularly important growth engine, fueled by rising defense spending and broader adoption of satcom-enabled operational concepts across military forces," it states, adding that NGSO constellations are becoming an increasingly important source of resilient capacity for government and defense users.

Defense budgets, in other words, are underwriting a meaningful slice of the projected expansion — a dependency worth watching if spending priorities shift.

What happens to capacity and pricing?

The satellite capacity market is forecast to exceed $46 billion by 2035, more than triple 2025 levels. The mix inside that market shifts sharply: Video Distribution, the largest capacity segment in 2025, is expected to account for just 3% of capacity revenues by 2035, while Consumer Broadband and Milsatcom together take more than half.

The driver is falling bandwidth cost. High-throughput satellite systems and a growing roster of NGSO projects are pushing prices down, which in turn accelerates satellite's move into mass-market applications. Novaspace names Starlink as increasingly competing with terrestrial broadband on price — a claim that carries weight where fiber and wireless coverage is thin, and less where they are dense. The report says satellite broadband is becoming a viable alternative to fiber and wireless in a growing range of markets; it does not say everywhere.

"Satellite connectivity is moving firmly into the mainstream," said Dimitri Buchs, Project Manager and Editor of the report. "The rapid expansion of NGSO capacity, declining bandwidth costs, and growing demand for resilient, always-available connectivity are fundamentally changing where and how satellite communications compete."

Is GEO staging a comeback?

The order book tells a story of recovery with caveats. Commercial GEO orders hit a low of six in 2024, rebounded to 10 in 2025, and reached 14 by mid-September 2026. Novaspace credits the renewed activity to evolving multi-orbit strategies and continued demand for GEO capabilities alongside expanding NGSO systems.

Buchs is explicit that this is not a return to the old model. "Software-defined satellites, more flexible commercial models, sovereign requirements, and growing multi-orbit strategies are redefining GEO's role," he said. "The future of satellite communications will not be GEO or NGSO — it will increasingly be an ecosystem in which each architecture serves distinct and complementary requirements."

The forecast rests on several assumptions holding simultaneously: defense spending keeps rising, bandwidth costs keep falling, and NGSO capacity keeps expanding on schedule. Novaspace's numbers run to 2035; the first test of the trajectory arrives well before that, in whether consumer broadband and milsatcom additions through 2030 track the projected curve.