Roth Capital has set a $108 price target on AST SpaceMobile and named the satellite operator its preferred "neutral" direct-to-device (D2D) partner for Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile, arguing that SpaceX's move into US terrestrial cellular will push America's Tier 1 operators closer to AST rather than away from it.

The Roth note landed alongside a client note from BNP Paribas. Both banks published after SpaceX announced its intention to launch a national cellular service in the US, a step that reshuffles the competitive dynamics of the direct-to-device market.

Why do analysts see SpaceX as good news for AST?

Roth's analysts point to three assets they believe give AST the edge: a portfolio of agreements covering 60 global markets with their local cellular carriers, a total addressable market of 3 billion potential subscribers, and a 2027 opening of its market — which the bank frames as a "time to market" advantage over SpaceX.

The report is emphatic that SpaceX's pledge to build a US terrestrial cellular service will "likely push a cozier relationship with the US Tier 1 cellular operators" with AST. The bank also flags a data point on the incumbent side: "We further note that T-Mobile has distanced itself from SpaceX after its mid-2025 satellite Text service launch."

What is AST actually building?

The commercial pipeline is moving. AST's BlueBird satellites 14, 15 and 16 have arrived at a warehouse near Cape Canaveral, and the company has confirmed construction is underway on every satellite up to and including BlueBird #50.

CEO Abel Avellan laid out the spectrum argument in a statement: "American operators hold ~1,000 MHz of low and mid band spectrum, tuneable on the AST SpaceMobile network. With our current satellites in orbit and in build, our US partners will access critical low-band and mid-band spectrum that no one can match!"

He added that when operators' spectrum holdings combine with AST's controlled 45 MHz of L-band spectrum, users will see peak data rates of nearly 200 Mbps from the largest-ever satellites in low Earth orbit. That throughput figure is a vendor projection, not a measured commercial result, and depends on the full BlueBird constellation being in service.

How credible is SpaceX's fourth-network threat?

BNP Paribas, having read SpaceX's FCC filing in detail and discussed it with investing clients, is blunt about the spectrum math. "This transaction alone doesn't give SpaceX near enough spectrum to build a credibly competitive fourth network. Indeed, it wasn't enough low-band spectrum to make the Sprint network competitive with the incumbents," the analysts wrote.

They noted that this holds even before counting the costs of retail distribution, handset subsidies, customer service and capital requirements elsewhere in the business — and that SpaceX's bonds have traded off 15 points in the last three months.

Still, BNP sees a strategic shift in the filing. SpaceX "explicitly state they intend to deploy some terrestrial infrastructure on towers, rooftops and other structures," a subtle but important change from the 2Q26 earnings call, when the plan was a femtocell network leveraging the Starlink broadband network.

The bank also sketched two possible motives: SpaceX may be ramping pressure on carriers hoping one folds into an MVNO deal — which BNP now considers less likely — or it may be strategically depressing wireless carrier valuations ahead of a future acquisition, with T-Mobile named as "the obvious candidate."

What does the C-band auction decide?

The regulatory detail that matters is the coverage obligation attached to SpaceX's 800 MHz spectrum. BNP notes it includes a fallback option to meet build-out requirements from space, possibly by redesigning the V2 Mobile satellites, meaning SpaceX can keep the licence without terrestrial deployment.

The real test comes at the FCC's upper C-band auction in 2027, covering roughly 160 MHz of spectrum. The FCC has so far declined SpaceX's request to allow space-based options for meeting coverage obligations there, sticking to terrestrial build-out only. As BNP concluded, if that rule stands, a SpaceX acquisition of C-band licences would be a much stronger signal that the company is willing to commit real capital to terrestrial builds.