Ookla has identified seven US fiber ISPs it considers the most likely targets as the country's biggest carriers and financial buyers continue to consolidate the broadband market.

Allo Fiber, Gateway Fiber, LiveOak Fiber, Wire 3, Ripple Fiber, Intrepid Fiber and Ezee Fiber top the list, according to a Monday report by Mike Dano, Ookla's lead industry analyst. He built the screen from Ookla speed test data covering roughly 500 ISPs that appear to offer fiber service, then narrowed the field using three criteria he says mark a provider as ripe for a deal: affluent subscribers, ongoing network expansion and minimal competition.

"To be clear, these are not the companies that will be acquired or will make acquisitions, but are simply ones that match a number of characteristics displayed by the companies typically involved in fiber transactions," Dano wrote.

One name on the list is already spoken for. Ripple Fiber is being acquired by Eaton Fiber, which in turn has a deal to carry Verizon service over its infrastructure. Analysts expect Verizon to pursue similar arrangements as it works toward a target of up to 50 million fiber passings.

Scale varies widely among the seven

The seven targets span a wide range of footprints. Ezee Fiber passed 600,000 homes at the end of last year. Allo Fiber says its network reaches 300,000 homes. Intrepid Fiber recently bought Ubiquity's 35,000 fiber passings in San Diego County and counted nearly 150,000 passings a year ago. LiveOak, Gateway and Wire 3 are each pursuing network expansion projects.

The consolidation logic is straightforward. AT&T aims for 60 million fiber passings by the end of 2030, and Verizon targets 40 million to 50 million over the long term. Both carriers argue that bundling fixed and mobile broadband sharply reduces customer churn — an argument cable operators have also embraced. Smaller ISPs without mobile offerings say they see the same bundling pressure in some of their markets.

Ookla's market analysis underlines why independent providers face pressure. In uncontested fiber markets — areas served by only one terrestrial ISP — nationwide providers such as AT&T and Verizon occupy 47.6 percent. Sizable regional players, including Uniti's Kinetic brand and Ziply, account for another 14 percent. That leaves the remaining 38.4 percent of uncontested markets to smaller providers, the pool from which the next wave of acquisitions is likely to come.

T-Mobile plays the JV game differently

T-Mobile stands apart from its rivals. The operator targets just 12 million to 15 million fiber passings by the end of 2030, and unlike AT&T and Verizon, it frames fiber purely as a standalone profit engine rather than a churn-reduction tool for its mobile base.

Rather than buying operators outright, T-Mobile has spent billions acquiring stakes in regional fiber companies through joint ventures with private equity firms. Ookla's speed test data shows where those bets sit. MetroNet accounted for 52.1 percent of T-Mobile fiber customers' speed tests, with Lumos second at 14.8 percent. Two deals that have not yet closed — GoNetSpeed and i3 Broadband — accounted for 7.1 percent and 6.5 percent respectively.

T-Mobile last reported fiber subscriber numbers at the end of 2020, when it counted nearly 1 million.

With AT&T and Verizon still tens of millions of passings short of their 2030 and long-term goals, and T-Mobile adding regional stakes through private equity vehicles, the pressure on mid-sized fiber ISPs to sell looks set to persist through the decade.