Around 5.4 million UK households will still rely on Freeview as their main route to live television in 2034, when the current guarantee for digital terrestrial television (DTT) expires, according to new forecasts cited by campaigning coalition Broadcast 2040+.

The figure, produced by media analyst Mathew Horsman, anchors a polling exercise that links public attitudes to a potential BBC household levy directly to the future of over-the-air broadcasting. Broadcast 2040+ released the results on 6 October as two UK policy processes converge ahead of decisions expected before the end of 2026.

What policy decisions are converging?

The Culture, Media and Sport Committee of the UK House of Commons last week urged ministers to keep an open mind on a household levy to replace the BBC licence fee. In parallel, the government is reviewing responses to its Watch this Space Green Paper, which consulted on 2034 and 2044 as target dates for a transition from DTT to internet-delivered television.

The two tracks have become politically inseparable in the polling data. Eighty-two per cent of respondents agreed that if every household is required to pay for the BBC, the BBC must ensure every household can watch it. Three quarters (74 per cent) want the next BBC Charter to commit the corporation explicitly to keeping its channels available to every home at no extra cost, including households without a fixed internet connection.

How does the BBC's Freeview stance change levy support?

The polling indicates the BBC's own position on DTT could shape the reception of any universal charge. A commitment to keep BBC channels on aerial TV beyond 2034 made 46 per cent of respondents more favourable to a levy and 8 per cent less favourable. A counterfactual in which the BBC backed switching off aerial TV in 2034 and moving all television online produced the opposite result: 47 per cent became less favourable and 11 per cent more favourable.

Horsman said the link is structural rather than rhetorical. "A universal levy rests on the BBC being a universal service, and people take that to mean everyone can receive it, broadband or not," he noted. "This is not a marginal group. On my forecasts, around 5.4 million homes will still use Freeview as their main way of watching live TV in 2034, and close to three million in 2045. A commitment to keep the BBC's channels on DTT beyond 2034 would make a material difference to how any universal charge is received."

What do viewers expect from the BBC under a levy?

Respondents who backed universal funding attached specific conditions to their support. Asked what they would expect of the BBC if every household paid a levy, they said the corporation should:

• Ensure older and disabled people can keep watching as they do now (77 per cent)
• Ensure households without broadband are not forced to buy it to watch the BBC (71 per cent)
• Ensure broadcast networks can still reach every home if internet or mobile networks fail (70 per cent)

A Broadcast 2040+ spokesperson said the universality principle cuts both ways. "If every household is asked to pay for the BBC, the public expects every household to be able to watch it, with or without a fixed broadband connection."

What is the commercial context?

The numbers frame a near-term decision for the UK broadcasting market. Horsman forecasts about 2.9 million households will still depend on Freeview for live TV in 2045, a decade after the current DTT guarantee ends. That residual base has implications for transmitter network operator Arqiva, which runs the UK's DTT infrastructure, and for receiver manufacturers serving the Freeview retail channel.

The data also lands as streaming services and connected TV platforms continue to absorb viewing share, with the BBC's iPlayer competing alongside Netflix, Disney+ and linear channel catch-up apps. The campaign framing positions DTT as a fallback layer for households on the wrong side of the digital divide.

When will the government decide?

The Department for Culture, Media and Sport has signalled that ministers will resolve responses to the Watch this Space consultation and any movement on licence fee replacement before the end of 2026. The Culture, Media and Sport Committee's recommendation to keep an open mind on a household levy gives ministers a route that does not require renewing the existing licence fee model.

A Broadcast 2040+ spokesperson said the sequencing is the point. "Ministers are deciding how the BBC is funded and how television reaches people at the same time," the spokesperson said. "Viewers clearly see these as one question. If a household levy or any other universal charging mechanism is taken forward, the public will expect it to come with a firm commitment to free-to-air terrestrial TV to at least 2044."